I like to take a look at the players around the Top 5 leagues frequently and see how the top ones are doing versus their expected numbers. I don’t really have a mechanism currently to derive my own expected results, so I use the ones from understat.com as they provide their information to the public.
I’ve mapped out the Top 25 players from the Top 5 leagues currently, with respect to the following criteria:
- The Top 25 derived as highest Goals + Assists per 90
- Minimum of 16 Goals + Assists
As can be seen, most of these players are playing ABOVE their expected numbers. It’s a bit surprising that the three playing below are all forwards that tend to have decent numbers as well. All three have expected goal values higher than their actuals, even though they each have a LOT of goals. In the case of Lewandowski, his xG is 25.47, yet his actual goal tally is 18. Explains a bit the slow start that Bayern had potentially.
One can also see that Messi and Mbappe are out in their own little world these days, and surprisingly before he got injured, Cavani was going nuts in Ligue 1.
Here’s a table with all the details:
