There’s constant chatter about how poorly the forwards for Chelsea are doing these days. Given Alvaro Morata’s challenges last year, and his immense comfort level at discussing his emotions with the public, this creates a feeding frenzy for the masses. However, if you were to look at his league numbers this year so far, and compare them to the other forwards in the league, he’s doing fine, especially given how limited his league minutes have been. The worry should be Olivier Giroud, but in a bit of a polar opposite perspective, everyone seems to love Olivier and he tends to get a free pass on a regular basis. Yeah, he’s got four assists, and that’s well and good, but as we all know, when you have to find other stats to brag up your forward, it’s because he’s not doing his job, which is scoring. I put together a table including the top two forwards from each of the top ten current PL clubs, and looked at the following metrics:
- Minutes per Goal
- Shots per Goal
- Shooting percentage (shots on target / (total shots – blocks)
- Conversion percentage (goals per total shot)
- Goal to xG ratio
I’ve got the table below, and it’s sorted by Minutes per Goal, and the two Chelsea forwards are highlighted:
As can be seen, when it comes to Minutes per Goal, Alvaro is fine. He could be better, all top level scorers in my opinion should be in the 125 or under range, but he’s still fourth in the league for his position, and really that would be third, as Sturridge is an anomaly due to the low number of minutes. He’s ahead of Kane (barely), and also well ahead of Lukaku, and Firminho isn’t even in the picture really, nor his counterpart, Giroud.
If you take a look at his Goals to xG ratio, he’s a bit under at 0.83, but that puts him right in the middle of the pack. His Shots per Goal are low, although they could be lower, and his Shooting Accuracy is fine, meaning he’s putting them into good position far more often than not, contrary to the 1v1 and missing-the-open-net narratives that refuse to die. His conversion rate is also middle of the road. If you look at his peers:
- PEA – Having a fantastic season, and the reason Arsenal are doing as well as they are
- Aguero – Also having a good season, although taking a LOT of shots to get there
- Kane – Frankly should be doing better I feel than he is right now
- Lukaku – Having a miserable season all things considered, when you look at his minutes played. Not getting much service, though, either. 23 shots in 977 minutes?
This actually leads to my second table, which is going to show Total Shots per 90, and Shots on Target per 90. Which interestingly enough, the Chelsea forwards nearly lead the way, behind only the two Manchester City forwards, unsurprisingly:
As we can see, our forwards are each averaging between 3 and 4 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch. This is particularly troublesome I feel, when it comes to looking at Mssr. Giroud. Not only is he underperforming his xG by a large margin, but he’s taking a LOT of shots, considering he’s only scored one league goal. 20 shots to score one goal. I honestly don’t care how many assists he has, it’s something that HAS to improve if Chelsea want to maintain their position in the table.
For the folks that are thinking that Alvaro Morata is still massively underperforming, I believe they are still used to seeing Chelsea in a system that allows far fewer shots, be it from Antonio Conte or Jose Mourinho, and are far too worried about each and every single possession and shot. The volume is obviously there for us, as we are second in the Premier League in shots per game at 17.6 (City at 19.4), and we are scoring goals, third with 30 (behind City at 43 and Arsenal at 32), so people simply need to relax a bit. Morata is getting shots, he’s getting shots on target, and he’s scoring at a good enough clip, he simply needs more minutes on the pitch. It’s Giroud that needs to step it up to keep being considered for the first team in league play. That’s my takeaway.