I wanted to look at something today, so I did what I usually do, I grabbed some data, I threw it into in this case, Tableau, and I put something together. It’s an organic process, I know what I want to initially see, and then once it’s together, I tweak it a bit, and highlight the things I notice, and adjust as necessary for anything I was either wrong about or simply didn’t think of. It’s my way of presenting anything I’m thinking about, to the “masses”, so to speak, as well as keeping my dataviz game practiced.
What I wanted to look at today was how teams carry the ball into the penalty area. I’m not sure why, I probably read something that triggered the thought, but it’s what floated to the top. My next thought was that I’d compare this to attacking third touches. Thinking that the only real way to carry the ball into the box is to start from the attacking third. Made sense. I mean, I guess it’s possible to carry it from the middle third, but not really what I’m looking for.
I put together a visual, which the original can be seen here in upper left:
The whole thing is an actual dashboard that’s live on my public Tableau profile right now, in case you want to play with it or simply follow along dynamically:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/robertnhanson#!/vizhome/PACvATT-TopFive/Dashboard
So the very first thing I noticed was a separation in the upper right from the rest of the clubs. This is actually why I inserted in the bins, because I could see that ‘top six’ level clubs were what were floating away from the pack. Notice the line I’ve drawn here:
Now, this isn’t ALL of the top six clubs, but it’s really ONLY top six clubs. You will notice Atalanta and Aston Villa both in there, but Atalanta is actually tied on points for 6th, and Villa are 4 points out of 6th with two games in hand. So in my book, they qualify.
What I also noticed is that barring the PL and Serie A, the other leagues really only have two clubs each in this upper area:
- La Liga – Barcelona & Real Madrid
- Ligue 1 – PSG & Lyon
- Bundesliga – Bayern Munich & Dortmund
I thought this interesting, and my take away is kind of what this whole article is about. What do not-good teams normally do against good teams? That’s right, they sit deep. They compact themselves defensively. Two solid structured lines of 4, or even 4 and 5, or 5 and 4, etc. They don’t let you pass into the box easily, knowing that’s normally the most effective method to get a good shot. Pass to a runner who either passes again to someone that shoots or they shoot it themselves. So the not-good teams prevent this as much as possible.
This leaves two options:
- Crossing the ball into the box – This is especially common in the PL, for some reason.
- Carrying the ball into the box – This seems really common in Serie A, and common for all really-good teams.
Notice the two leagues that have a LOT of sides in the upper cluster are the PL and Serie A. Both have five sides, whereas the other leagues only have 2. I posit that for the Premier League, this is in large part due to the high level of quality in the top sides, especially those shown here (Leicester City and West Ham are the two ‘top six’ not included). I’ll also argue that for Serie A, I think it’s a combination of club quality as well as simple league style, historically. It’s always been known as a technical league, and involves a lot of ball carries and dribbling and skill on the ball, and I think this is bearing fruit here. Especially as the top side, Milan, are really right now more of a “Zlatan and the gang” type side, versus a well balanced machine.
I also say this about Serie A because most of their upper cluster sides for carries are heavier on the “carries” side of the trend line than the “Attacking 3rd Touches” side. So it’s not simply about greater possession but more about what they are doing when they do have possession.
I think in general it shows that to be a consistent top side, especially right now, that the ability to carry the ball into the box is a key indicator of whether a side is successful or not. Especially for sides that are consistently challenging for the league title each season.