I took a look at some expected goals for and against data, for the Top Five leagues, for the last five seasons plus current (thanks understat), and wanted to see how this was represented versus the actual points being accumulated and the table places clubs were finishing at. After all, expected data is great for trending, and attempts at prediction, but any given match might completely ignore the expected numbers when allocating points at the end.
I plotted the data on my Tableau profile:
One of the first things I noticed, as I tend to pay attention to the PL a lot, is how good this season’s Manchester United look. Definitely better than their current table position. They have the best expected GA in the league, and while not at Chelsea/Liverpool/ManCity level, have comfortably the fourth best expected GF in the league.
Also, you can see Leicester clearly playing above expected numbers so far. That 9 goal match has an obvious impact here. But again, good expected goals against.
Similarly, Everton are right there too. They are kind of the opposite of Leicester right now. Woefully underscoring their expected GF.
Looking at other leagues, Bologna is quite a surprise. 15th in the table, yet having very good expected numbers both For and Against. Cagliari somehow making it work even when the numbers don’t look so great.
Ligue 1 isn’t really even worth looking at this year, PSG is so far ahead of everyone to once again make it not a contest. Monaco is slowly trying to climb, though, but they massively need to improve their defense.
La Liga is having a strong season, all of the top five this year are looking good statistically.
The Bundesliga looks weird, as it often does. Not surprising.
Enjoy the data!