Right now, with Cesc Fabregas off to the beautiful coastline of Monaco, we are left without a legitimate replacement or backup for Jorginho, when he needs a rest, or heaven forbid, if he picks up an injury. For a while now, we have had our eyes on firs Nicolo Barella for his versatility, and then more recently on Leandro Paredes for his “Jorginho-ness”.
There is another potential candidate for this party, though, and that’s Julian Weigl. Nearly forgotten now on the bench at Dortmund, after Tuchel left for the loftier potentials at PSG, Julian Weigl was at one point everyone’s favorite future DLP/DM, constantly talked about. Often likened to Sergio Busquets for his style of play, he’s a fantastic Deep Lying Playmaker, a servicable Defensive Midfielder, and very comparable to Jorginho statistically.
Now, it should also be pointed out that Paredes, who’s been likened to Xabi Alonso (is this a Ford vs Chevy type situation or what?), is also statistically very comparable to Jorginho as well, and has the additional added value of being able to slot into a CM spot as a serviceable substitute. He’s also a year older, and is going to cost about 60% more, based on current values being bandied about, which seem to be €35-€45m for Paredes, and just €25m for Weigl.
One other positive for Paredes is that he did play for a year on loan to Empoli, the season after Sarri left, but this means there’s likely some familarity with his system. He’s also currently playing big minutes in Russia, whereas Weigl really hasn’t this year, but he did have three solid seasons with Tuchel.
I’ve watched all three players play a fair amount over the last few years, even suggesting Paredes last summer prior to our signing of Jorginho, and suggesting Weigl the summer before that, as I simply really like the player. I’ve put together some Pro/Con bullet points from my reading/viewing:
Weigl – The Next Busquets?
Pros:
- Intelligent with positioning
- Very Composed on the ball
- Not bothered by a high press
- Good at movement after making the pass, will often occupy vacant spaces to allow return passes or move defenders
- Good tracking back
- Keeps it simple
- Alert Defensively
- Great long ball diagonal passer and good at vertical low balls
Cons:
- Not very physical at all
- Not fast
- Keeps it simple
- Not going to give you much final third output or results
Leandro Paredes – The next Xabi Alonso?
Pros:
- Good at switching play
- a mature understanding of the game
- adept at dictating terms of play
- Composed
- Good precision with the ball
- Good set piece taker
- Able to provide cover at CM
Cons:
- Not a physical player
- Not fast
- Known to have a temper on the pitch, and let it lead to fouling
Metric Evaluation
I’ve put together some metrics for comparison, and it’s crazy how similar these three players are. I used totals over a multiple year period, to account for year-to-year fluctuation, and I didn’t want to make charts for every single year.
- For Paredes, I used 2015/16 – 2018/19, league play.
- For Weigl, I used 2015/16 – 2017/18, league play. He’s played so little this year that the numbers are not going to be representative of what we’d see, due to sample size issues
- For Jorginho, I used 2014/15 – 2018/19, league play. He’s older, so I wanted to try to capture a bit of a broader stroke, and also for back to his first full season with Sarri at Napoli.
I put together a “Defense” chart, a “Ball Possession” chart, and a “Distribution” chart. I’m pretty much ignoring shooting, goals, and assists, because for me in this position anything achieved is a bonus, and any actual results are so small as to be inconsequential for me anyway.
For the Defense Chart:
- Tackles Won per 90
- Tackle Success Rate
- Blocks per 90
- Clearances per 90
- Fouls Committed per 90
- Interceptions per 90
For the Ball Possession Chart:
- Dribbles Won per 90
- Dribble Success Rate
- Unsuccessful Touches per 90
- Times Dispossessed per 90
- Aerials Won per 90
- Aerials Success Rate
- Times Fouled per 90
For the Distribution Chart:
- Pass Attempts per 90
- Long Ball Attempts per 90
- Long Ball Success Rate
- Short Pass Attempts per 90
- Short Pass Success Rate
As can be seen, Weigl is going to likely give you a bit more defensively, and he’s definitely better in the air, but he’s not giving you much in attack. He’s a bit better with the ball at his feet, too. Also, to point out, those KP numbers above are excluding Corners and Free Kicks, as Paredes is often the taker of those, so his numbers become incredibly skewed otherwise.
Paredes is going to give you more going forward, and more flexibility, and a bit more maturity. I think both of them are phenomenally comparable in their own way to what we get from Jorginho, and both would work in a pinch, but Paredes might give us that CM flexibility we need. At nearly twice the price.
I’ve recommended both at different points, so I don’t think we could go wrong either way. I’d probably lean towards Weigl, as he’s a much more affordable option, and a bit expendable at Dortmund right now, and might be more willing to be a backup to Jorginho. But I’d be happy with either.
