I’m going to keep this a bit brief, it’s more a table of data and some explanation, than a full blown article. All too often, as a Chelsea supporter, I get to hear constant moaning about all of the terrible and horrible things about Alvaro Morata. Which, as they usually are, are too often exaggerated beyond all hope of serious comprehension, yet alone discussion. Are there issues? Obviously. Is he underperforming? Absolutely. Is he as bad as everyone keeps moaning about? Nope.
Below is a table I put together of some of the top forwards in the Prem right now, as it randomly turned out I grabbed 20 names, but not all of them are starting forwards, some are forward/wing players, some are bench rotation guys. Yet they all have a couple of things in common:
- They have all played more league minutes than Morata has
- They all have as many or more league goals than Morata has
I grabbed some data from whoscored, and from understat, and built a little matrix showing the following metrics and calculations
- Metrics: Minutes played, Goals scored, xG, Shots, Shots Blocked, Shots on Target
- Calculations: Minutes per Goal, Shots per Goal, Shots on Target per Goal, Minutes per Shot, Minutes per Shot on Target, Shot %, Minutes per xG, xG per Goal, and xG per Shot.
I used simple color shading to emphasis better versus worse on all of the calculations. Initially it might look a bit like my kids got hold of the crayons, but the point was to create a bit of a visual heat map of the table. It’s sorted by the left-most, Minutes per Goal, as that’s a fantastic starting point in terms of production. But visually it’s easy enough to simply look for greens, yellows, oranges, reds, etc. and ‘see’ how players are doing overall. I liked how it turned out.
As for some info about the results….
- Morata is around the top of the bottom half when it comes to Minutes per Goal, but one does wonder what his production might be if he had more minutes, especially given his recent production lift in cup play
- His biggest issue I feel is his xG/Goal ratio. Second worst in the list. He’s not converting enough of his chances.
- This table sure does make Martial look fantastic, huh? 8 goals on 21 shots? Wow. I’ve literally double checked the data twice.
Now, I want to say a few more words about Alvaro Morata, and a theory I have. I don’t believe I’m the only one who thinks that he’s not the ideal candidate to get the ball at his feet and create his own shot, but rather more of a “give me a good ball to score” type of forward. Unfortunately, our system right now, or at least the way our wide players are playing, seems to be with the intent of either playing off of him (which Giroud IS more suited for) or to engage in giving him the ball at his feet with the hope that he can dribble, create, and score. It’s simply not going to happen with frequency.
In addition to this, and what I think completes the circle of “what’s wrong with Alvaro?” is that we simply aren’t giving him enough shots, let alone the right type of shot. Prior to the Southampton match, Alvaro scored in every PL match where he had at least 3 shots. Now, technically (in my mind at least) Alvaro did score in that Soton match, it was simply ruled offside, incorrectly I might add. But it adds further fuel to the point, in that he had 3 shots, and he got in a position and scored a ball.
If you notice some of the other players on that list, say, Aguero and Kane, they are volume shooters. Sure, both can create when necessary, but Aguero takes 6.60 shots to score a goal (remember, kids, Morata only takes 7). Kane takes 5 shots to score a goal. We expect Morata to be a PEA, or a Martial or Lukaku, in that they are going to get the ball, turn and bang it in. But it’s simply not the type of forward he is. In the last four prior seasons of league play, only once has he had a low Shots per Goal ratio:
- 2017/18 – 7.18 Shots per Goal
- 2016/17 – 3.67 Shots per Goal
- 2015/16 – 6.86 Shots per Goal
- 2014/15 – 6.38 Shots per Goal
He was scoring for fun at Real Madrid right before we bought him, but that was an anomaly, not the standard. Does that mean he’s incapable of leading the line for a top club? Not at all. But it does mean he needs to be fed the ball to score goals. And if a top club doesn’t want to do this, then they really shouldn’t expect a massive return. It’s simply not the type of player he is.
